Jobs and Recovery

Bill Hobbs has a post about employment figures. The basic point is that the two methods of determing the employment rate: the payroll survey and the household survey are continuing to diverge. The bleak picture in the payroll survey, gathered from established companies, is not mirrored in the household survey, which captures the self-employed.

In fact, the payroll survey shows a net loss of about 750,000 jobs in 2002 (through Nov), while the household survey shows a net gain of close to 2 million.

I know several people who would not be counted in the payroll survey, but who are most definitely employed (in fact, one just complained about how well his business is going).

Check out the post, it has some interesting quotes from a Bear Stearns analysis [PDF], as well as a chart from a report of Congress' Joint Economic Committee.